The Idaho Ledger

The record Idaho's "press" won't keep.

Data Analysis — Idaho Fidelity Foundation

Who Actually Votes in Idaho's Republican Primary

In the 2022 Idaho Republican primary, voters 65 and older cast more than half of all Republican ballots despite being only 34.5% of registered Republicans. Voters 18-29 cast 3.6% of the vote despite comprising 12.6% of Republican registration. This structural imbalance is the foundation of the establishment's electoral advantage.

Source: Idaho Secretary of State Statewide Voter File w/ May 17, 2022 Primary History  ·  1,023,595 registered voters  ·  310,961 primary participants  ·  Analysis: Idaho Fidelity Foundation
51.2%
of all R primary votes
cast by voters 65+
62.4%
turnout rate
for 65+ Republicans
12.0%
turnout rate
for 18-29 Republicans
5.2x
higher turnout rate
65+ vs 18-29

Republican Primary Votes Cast by Age Group

Share of 2022 Republican Primary Vote by Age Bucket n = 265,799 Republican voters
65+ 136,130 votes
51.2%
45-64 86,203 votes
32.4%
30-44 33,958 votes
12.8%
18-29 9,508 votes
3.6%

65+ voters cast 51.2% of Republican primary votes while comprising only 34.5% of registered Republicans. The 18-29 age group, at 12.6% of registered Republicans, cast only 3.6% of the vote.

Turnout Rate vs. Registration Share

Turnout Rate by Age % of registered R who voted
65+ 62.4%
62.4%
45-64 42.0%
42.0%
30-44 26.4%
26.4%
18-29 12.0%
12.0%
Registered Republicans by Age % of total R registration
65+ 218,076 | 34.5%
34.5%
45-64 205,476 | 32.5%
32.5%
30-44 128,505 | 20.4%
20.4%
18-29 79,287 | 12.6%
12.6%
The sleeping giant: 79,287 Republicans aged 18-29 are registered in Idaho. Only 9,508 voted in 2022 -- a 12% turnout rate. If that group turned out at the same rate as 30-44 year olds (26.4%), that's 20,932 votes -- more than double what showed up. If they turned out at the 45-64 rate (42%), that's 33,300 votes. The entire McGeachin deficit (57,000 votes) could be meaningfully closed by moving young Republican turnout from 12% to 30-35%.

Early & Absentee Voting by Age

Share of Age Group Voting Early or Absentee vs. in-person election day
65+ 36,995 of 136,130 | 27%
27%
45-64 13,678 of 86,203 | 16%
16%
30-44 4,135 of 33,958 | 12%
12%
18-29 1,001 of 9,508 | 11%
11%

65+ voters cast 36,995 ballots before election day -- 27% of their total vote. These ballots are committed before any late-breaking campaign news. Combined with their overall turnout dominance, Little's floor is effectively locked in weeks before election day.

Overall Primary Participation

Registration by Party all 1,023,595 voters
Republican 631,344
61.7%
Unaffiliated 257,003
25.1%
Democratic 120,644
11.8%
Other 14,604
1.4%
Primary Turnout by Party % of registered who voted
Republican 265,799 | 42.1%
42.1%
Constitution 739 | 17.8%
17.8%
Democratic 25,240 | 20.9%
20.9%
Unaffiliated 18,132 | 7.1%
7.1%

County Breakdown — 65+ Share of Republican Primary Vote

County R Votes 65+ Votes 65+ Share 18-29 Votes 18-29 Share Gap

Source: Idaho Secretary of State Statewide Voter File with May 17, 2022 Primary History. Obtained via Idaho Public Records Act request, May 2026. Analysis by Idaho Fidelity Foundation.