The Idaho Ledger

The record Idaho's "press" won't keep.

30.3%
Voter turnout
307,494 of 1,031,196 registered
9
Republican incumbents
defeated in primaries
41%
GOP voters who cast
ballots against Little
5
"Gang of Eight" budget
conservatives defeated
GOP Primary Results 99% reporting -- 238,762 total votes
1 Brad Little INC
58.96% 140,778
2 Mark Fitzpatrick
28.71% 68,546
3 Lisa Marie
3.02% 7,215
4 Justin Plante
2.21% 5,286
5 Sean Crystal
1.91% 4,558
6 Ron James
1.89% 4,510
7 Daniel Fowler
1.76% 4,197
8 Ethan Giles
1.54% 3,672
The Ledger's Read

Little won. But the headline isn't that he won -- it's that nearly 100,000 Idaho Republicans voted against the incumbent governor endorsed by President Trump. Fitzpatrick alone pulled 68,546 votes, more than any single challenger in Little's 2022 primary.

The opposition vote was split eight ways. Had conservatives consolidated behind one challenger, the math looks different. That's the work that remains.

Little advances to face Democrat Terri Pickens in November. In a state where Republicans have won every statewide race since 2002, that general election is not the real contest. The real contest was today. He survived it.

Little Primary % -- Year Over Year
2018
37% (4-way)
37%
2022
52.8% (8-way)
52.8%
2026
58.96% (8-way)
58.96%
His primary % has risen each cycle -- but so has the absolute vote against him. In 2022, challengers combined for ~132k votes. In 2026, challengers combined for ~98k -- but on lower total turnout. The anti-Little GOP vote is real and durable. Full spending analysis coming.
The Idaho Ledger's Read

Brad Little raised $1.84 million to win 59% of his own party against seven underfunded challengers. His nearest opponent, Mark Fitzpatrick, raised $184,000 -- a 10:1 money disadvantage. But the money story doesn't end with how much he raised. It ends with where it went.

In 2022, roughly 75% of Little's campaign money left Idaho entirely -- paid to Washington DC and Salt Lake City operatives. The corporations and industries that funded him received policy in return. The 2026 expenditure filings certify June 9. This section will update with confirmed 2026 spending when those records are available.

Little Fundraising vs. Top Challenger -- By Cycle
Cycle Little Top Challenger Advantage
2018 ~$1.5M vs. Labrador ~$1.2M
Competitive
1.3:1
2022 ~$1.9M vs. McGeachin ~$350K
Dominant
5:1
2026 $1.84M vs. Fitzpatrick $184K
Demolition
10:1
Little raised 3.3x more than the second-highest fundraiser statewide in 2026 -- Labrador at $552K. His vote share gain per dollar spent has declined each cycle: more money, less conversion. Source: Idaho Sunshine Campaign Finance Portal (sunshine.sos.idaho.gov).
Where Little's Money Goes -- 2022 Confirmed (2026 Pending June 9)
Out-of-State Vendors -- 2022 Cycle
FP1 Strategies -- Arlington, VA
TV/broadcast ads. RGA's preferred firm. Also works Ducey, Gianforte, Lombardo. Led by former RNC officials Terry Nelson and Danny Diaz (ex-Jeb Bush campaign, RNC Communications Director).
$1,300,000 OUT OF STATE
Arena Mail & Digital -- Salt Lake City, UT
Digital ads and direct mail attacks against McGeachin.
$73,000+ OUT OF STATE
September Group LLC -- Salt Lake City, UT
Door-to-door canvassing operation.
$57,000 OUT OF STATE
Confirmed out-of-state spend (2022) ~$1,430,000 ~75% of total
Idaho donors and corporations fund the governor. The money flows to Washington DC and Utah. 2026 expenditure data certifies June 9 -- the Idaho Ledger will update this section when filings are available. FP1 client list includes RGA IE work for Lombardo (NV) and Scott Walker (WI) -- Little is plugged into the national Republican establishment's infrastructure, not just Idaho's.
Notable Donors and Conflicts of Interest -- Idaho Victory Fund + Friends of Brad Little
Donors with Direct Policy Returns
CoreCivic -- Private prison company
Holds Idaho DOC contract housing up to 1,200 Idaho male inmates in Arizona. Little signed 287(g) ICE transport order funneling detainees through system CoreCivic benefits from. Company lobbying Trump admin for $300M+ in new ICE contracts nationally.
$1,000
Micron Technology
Little signed SB1211 -- direct taxpayer subsidy to Micron for $15B Boise fab expansion. Contribution predates the signing.
$5,000
Idaho Potato Growers PAC
Ag industry that depends on immigrant labor pipeline. Little talks border enforcement publicly but has never disrupted the ag workforce supply chain.
$5,000
UnitedHealth Group
Nation's largest health insurer. Idaho Medicaid expansion under Little's watch.
$5,000
Melaleuca -- Idaho Falls
Recurring Little donor across multiple cycles.
$5,000
Coeur d'Alene Tribe
Gaming compact negotiations under Little administration.
$2,500
The Chobani / Dairy Angle
Chobani built the world's largest yogurt plant in Twin Falls in 2012, actively recruits refugees as workers, and partnered with the College of Southern Idaho Refugee Center. The state awarded Chobani $25 million in tax incentives during the Little era. Little praised Chobani publicly and attended events. The Idaho dairy industry openly depends on immigrant and undocumented labor -- the Idaho Dairymen's Association has lobbied for immigration "stability." Little performs immigration enforcement for optics while protecting the ag-industry donors who need the labor pipeline intact. No direct Chobani campaign contribution confirmed -- the benefit flows through tax incentives and policy non-action, not a check.
The IACI Machine
Little chaired the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry for 20 years before becoming governor. His chief of staff came from IACI. IACI endorses candidates in primary races to remove liberty/conservative legislators. Little vetoes legislation IACI opposes and signs legislation IACI supports -- near 100% alignment across his term. IACI and Little's PACs fund the same challengers against conservative incumbents.
All donor figures sourced from Idaho Sunshine Campaign Finance Portal (sunshine.sos.idaho.gov) -- Friends of Brad Little (ID 2643), Brad Little for Governor (ID 424), Idaho Victory Fund (ID 422). Complete donor list review ongoing. 2026 full filing available post-June 9 certification.
Updating After June 9
2026 Expenditure Filings Pending
Idaho campaign finance reports for the 2026 primary certify June 9, 2026. The Idaho Ledger will pull the complete Friends of Brad Little expenditure file at that time and update this section with confirmed 2026 vendor payments, out-of-state spending totals, and any new donor flags. Check back.
What Happened

Nine Republican incumbents lost their primary bids. Five were members of the "Gang of Eight," a conservative bloc that pushed hard for spending cuts and immigration enforcement. Several of those losses came in Magic Valley agricultural districts where farm groups were unhappy with their immigration enforcement positions -- a sign that the spending-cut coalition had limits outside North Idaho.

Notable: Scott Herndon defeated Sen. Jim Woodward again in North Idaho, reversing Woodward's 2022 win. Herndon and Woodward have traded this seat twice now.

Incumbent District Challenger Result Margin
Rep. Steven Miller (Budget Committee Vice Chair) Magic Valley Chance Requa (1st) / William Mostoller (2nd) Lost 3rd of 3 -- 31.6%
Rep. Lucas Cayler Canyon County Debbie Geyer Lost 53.3% -- 46.7%
Rep. Tanya Burgoyne Eastern Idaho Jennifer Miles Lost 50.6% -- 49.4% (40 votes)
Rep. Zuiderveld Magic Valley Brent D. Reinke Lost 60.1% -- 39.9%
Rep. Kohl Magic Valley Casey Swensen Lost 57.9% -- 42.1%
Rep. Thompson TBD Brian Beckley Lost 59.1% -- 40.9%
Sen. Jim Woodward North Idaho (Dist. 5) Scott Herndon Lost Herndon wins rematch
Rep. Leavitt (Gang of Eight) Magic Valley TBD Lost Pending full results
Rep. Barbara Ehardt Idaho Falls (Dist. 33A) Connor Cook Survived 51.6% -- less than 200 votes
Idaho Republican Primary Turnout -- 2018 Through 2026
2018
~38%
~38%
2020
~42%
~42%
Median
27.9%
27.9%
2022
~31%
~31%
2024
~23.9%
~23.9%
2026
30.3% -- 307,494 votes
30.3%
2024 was a legislative/congressional primary only -- no governor's race -- which explains the dip below the historical median. 2026 bounced back to 30.3%, above the median of 27.9%, driven by the contested governor's race. Bear Lake County hit 51.9% in 2026 -- Teton County was lowest at 21.8%. Source: Idaho Secretary of State, Idaho Capital Sun.
2024 General Election Turnout vs. Primary -- The Participation Gap
2024 General (Nov 5)
Statewide
77.83% -- 1,834,938 ballots
77.83%
Ada Co.
78.3%
78.3%
Canyon
85.4%
85.4%
2026 Primary (May 19) -- for comparison
Statewide
30.3% -- 307,494 votes
30.3%
The gap between primary and general election participation is where Idaho conservative politics actually happens. The governor's race is decided in May by roughly 30% of registered voters. Nearly half the state that shows up in November never weighs in on who the Republican candidate is. Source: Idaho Secretary of State 2024 General Election data (certified); 2026 primary results unofficial pending canvass. County figures from raw_stats_general.xlsx and turnout_county_general.xlsx, Idaho Secretary of State.
November 3, 2026 General Election

Little advances to face Democrat Terri Pickens in November. Idaho has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2002. The general election outcome is not in doubt. The primary was the real contest.

All 105 seats in the Idaho Legislature are up in November. Most Republican primaries were uncontested or produced candidates who will be heavily favored in November. The nine incumbents who lost will be replaced by their primary winners.

Congressional races: Both incumbent House Republicans (Fulcher and Simpson) survived their primaries. Sen. Jim Risch advances to face a Democrat in November.

All 2026 results are unofficial pending certification by the Idaho State Board of Canvassers. Vote totals sourced from KTVB (AP feed), Idaho Capital Sun, Boise State Public Radio, and Idaho Secretary of State live results as of May 20-21, 2026. Historical primary turnout data from Idaho Secretary of State via Idaho Capital Sun analysis; 2024 primary turnout (~23.9%) from Idaho Capital Sun reporting on May 2024 state primary. 2024 general election turnout figures from Idaho Secretary of State certified data (raw_stats_general.xlsx, turnout_county_general.xlsx). Brad Little 2022 primary result (52.8%) from Idaho Secretary of State certified results. All data on file with the Idaho Ledger.